The Mobile Computing Market
- The Big Picture -

MOBILE COMPUTING & WIRELESS OUTLOOK

RAW METRICS FROM THE PRESS 
"Forecasting is a black magic. Greatest real growth in wireless has been in the number of market size and outlook reports published i trade journals. No two forecasts are the same. To satisfy the needs of those who must present this information in their PowerPoint slides and business plans, we are reproducing press snippets that we have seen. At the same time, MobileInfo.Com must sound a note of caution - just use this raw data to make a point - do not put your hard-earned savings in stocks based on these forecasts." - Chander Dhawan, Managing Editor of MobileInfo.Com website
Quoted in Red Herring Magazine – Sep 30, 1999Demand for 3G services will be slow at first, dragged down by the reluctance of carriers, device manufacturers, and infrastructure providers to jettison existing investments in old technologies. The consulting firm Ernst & Young predicts that the number of 3Gmobile subscribers will increase slowly, to 10 million worldwide by 2004, but as the wars over standards end and services become uniform and ubiquitous, that will climb to 60 million by 2005.

Quoted in Planet IT by Jacqueline Emigh – July 1999A: Market analysts think so. Dataquest now predicts the wireless data market will grow more than tenfold, from 3 million subscribers in 1999 to 36 million in 2003. In a recent report, Dataquest cited the need to access e-mail as one of the major drivers behind the explosion.

Other factors mentioned in the Dataquest study include the lowered cost of short messaging services (SMS), refinement of content-oriented information data services, and a boom in digital and personal communications services handsets. Also by 2003, about two-thirds of all wireless data subscribers will be using SMS, and 19 percent will be using two-way paging, according to Dataquest. Functions of SMS will include e-mail, making data inquiries, getting information and scheduling reservations.
Dataquest is at http://www.dataquest.com.

IBM White Paper on pervasive computing
The number of pervasive devices is expected to multiply rapidly over the next few years. International Data Corp. (IDC) has predicted that by 2003 the number of pervasive computing devices will exceed the 6 billion estimated number of people worldwide. Specifically, there will be more than 300 million personal digital assistants (PDAs), 2 billion consumer electronic devices, such as wireless phones, pagers and set top boxes, and 5 billion additional everyday devices like vending machines, refrigerators, and washing machines embedded with chips connected to the Internet. Companies must be prepared not only to extend the corporate infrastructure to meet the anticipated demand, but to modify their existing applications so that devices become completely integrated into existing mission-critical systems.

Frost & Sullivan, Mountain View, California – quoted in computing Canada ON Sep 17, 1999 "Wireless data market will grow ten fold, reaching 2.5 billion by 2002" 

Yankee Group in Boston (1999)
" Wireless Data users to balloon from current 2.9 million to 12.6 or even 20 million under optimistic environment by 2002".

The Wireless Market (ShadowPack Press Release) - Mid 2000
International Data Corporation (IDC) predicts that persons accessing the Web from a wireless device will surpass those using landline connections as early as 2002, with a total of 1.1 billion mobile Web users by 2003. Merrill Lynch agrees - it foresees 1.5 billion wireless data subscribers by 2005.
Device use is also on the rise. Time Magazine predicts that PDA sales will reach 35 million by 2003, up from just 8.9 million in 1999. Donaldson, Lufkin, Jenrette projects a 2000 percent increase in the number of two-way pagers in the United States by 2002.

Unsolicited e-mail Received by MobileInfo.Com – October 2000 - IDC estimates that global Internet mail volume will increase more than fivefold over the next five years, from 5 billion in 1999 to approximately 26 billion by 2005, and by 2003 there will be 1 billion wireless Internet devices. AmikaNow! is developing email management products to assist mobile users with information overload, enabling them to make informed, efficient business decisions while on the move.

(CTIA News – November 2000) - Japan's Mobile Phone Subscribers Reach 56.32 Million in October  For Internet services provided via mobile phones, subscribers to NTT DoCoMo's i-mode service rose by 1.39 million, or roughly 11.00 percent, to 14.04 million in October. Subscribers to KDDI's EZweb service increased by 330,000, or around 8.5 percent, to 4.22 million. Subscribers to J-Phone Group's J-Sky service rose by 402,100 or about 12.8 percent, to 3.54 million. (Dow Jones) (AP)

GENERAL NEWS - Thursday, 23rd November 2000
The ARC Group has issued a bullish report predicting a worldwide explosion in mobile data usage, particularly in Western Europe and Japan. According to the publication, entitled 'Wireless Internet: Applications, Technology and Market Strategies', there will be 1.2 billion mobile data users by 2005, outstripping a predicted 750 million fixed internet users. The Western European market will grow from its current 23% penetration to 72% in 2003 and 91% or 409 people million in 2005. Japan will experience similar growth, while the US is expected to lag behind, burdened by incompatible mobile network standards, rising from 7% today to 44% in 2003 and 83% in 2005.  For the full article please go to ARC group website. 

E-Mail Received by MobileInfo.com
A forecast released today by Analysy and 3G LAB has predicted the dominance of 3G by 2006. Additionally, Analysys and 3G LAB have forecast that by 2003 all new and replacement mobile handsets will be data enabled...
The press release relating to this forecast is pasted below. If you have any queries or wish to speak with 3G LAB CEO, Steve Ives, please let me know -  Rebecca Tel: 020 8600 4649

NEWS RELEASE - 3G USERS SET TO DOMINATE BY 2006 
Worldwide research by Analysys and 3G LAB shows the introduction of next generation mobile technology will accelerate the growth of data-enabled services - 8 December 2000

Mobile subscriptions to 3G services are predicted to reach critical mass by 2006, according to worldwide forecast by Analysys and 3G LAB, the Cambridge (UK)-based Open Source software provider for the mobile Internet. According to the forecast, the number of 3G mobile subscribers will represent about one third of the total mobile subscriber base in 2006. The forecast, which includes both pessimistic and optimistic scenarios in terms of penetration and handset replacement cycles, predicts that 2G subscriptions will peak in 2002/2003. In the base scenario, the number of 2.5G subscriptions starts to decline from 2008 onwards. The independent forecast, carried out by Analysys on behalf of 3G LAB, found that the rate of adoption of data-based mobile Internet technology will increase rapidly with over half of all GSM handsets shipped in 2001 being data enabled, and non-data enabled handsets no longer being shipped from 2003 onwards. By 2010, it is predicted that all new and replacement handsets sold across Europe and North America will be third generation devices. The Analysys forecast, which is released today, provides predictions on 3G adoption based on computer modeling of the worldwide 2G, 2.5G and 3G markets.

"There's been a lot of hype about the explosion in the rate of mobile Internet adoption, and a lot of questions asked about just how many people will use the 3G services when they are launched over the next few years," said Steve Ives, CEO, 3G LAB. "Now, for the first time, we have the data that gives substance to the promise of the mobile Internet. As bandwidth increases, subscribers will demand new content-driven services. This research sends out a clear message that the market is real and that the opportunity for content providers is large and expanding fast. Companies cannot afford to ignore this market and 3G LAB, with our extensive 3G consulting track record, is well placed to help them define their place in the new wireless world."

"The telco world is about to change beyond all recognition," said David Cleevely, Analysys. "The explosion in data-based mobile communications will affect not only the type of devices that are shipped, but also the opportunities for new players to enter the market. The 3G license holders will all need to deliver services above and beyond those available today ...and to do that they'll need to enlist the help of content providers. This research shows unquestionably that data-based services will change every aspect of mobile communications, from the devices at the front-end to the back-end servers that will make the content available. 3G LAB are among the first out of the blocks to deliver 3G consulting services, and as our research reveals, 3G expertise will be much in demand over the coming
years."

The key findings of the research are: 3G adoption will accelerate and soon become the dominant mobile technology. By 2006, Analysys forecasts that 3G will account for 480 million subscribers; 2.5G subscribers will number 480 million; 2G will have just 380million subscribers.

By 2010, 3G subscribers worldwide will number 1.04 billion, with the most optimistic projection putting the subscription level at 1.34 billion,compared to the most pessimistic case of 744 million
By 2007, the overall worldwide growth in mobile subscriptions will be confined to 3G technology. Only Africa, Continental Asia and Latin America will see continued growth around 2.5G technology
From 2007, only shipments of new and replacement 3G handsets will see growth in Europe. 2.5G handset sales will enter terminal decline. 2G handsets, in decline from 2002, will completely disappear from sale by 2006 2.5G subscriptions will peak in 2008. Although the optimistic case forecasts a continued but slowing growth, the pessimistic and base cases predict 2.5G subscriptions to either plateau or decline respectively 2G subscriptions will, according to all scenarios, peak between 2002-3. After this, 2G will spiral into decline. No new 2G handsets will be shipped after 2008, with the few remaining 2G subscribers confined to continental Asia.

By 2003, all 2G handsets shipped will be data-enabled Mobile subscription numbers will continue to increase rapidly worldwide, with mobile penetration remaining highest in Europe Mobile subscribers in Western Europe will number 250 million by 2010 (64% of the population). This compares to a worldwide mobile subscriber base of 1.6 billion Eastern Europe will see a ten fold increase in mobile penetration between 1998 and 2010 (1998 = 7.4 million; 2010 = 84 million). In the Pacific Rim, the number of mobile subscribers will increase from 75 million (1998) to over 320 million by 2010.

The developing world generally - and continental Asia in particular - will see extremely rapid growth in mobile subscriptions. However, starting from a low base level, mobile penetration is assumed to stay below 20% in the developing world. Continental Asia, which will have a mobile penetration of just 11% by 2010, will still account for over 550 million subscribers.

ABOUT THE RESEARCH
The research is based on a model constructed according to worldwide population, the projected penetration of mobile communications (2G, 2.5G and 3G) and the rate of handset replacement across all generations of devices. 2G technology is defined as basic digital mobile voice telephony and
low-speed data, and includes GSM, TDMA, cdmaOne and PDC standards. 2.5G technology defined as 'always-on', higher speed packet switched data, the most well known example of which is GPRS. 3G technology - always on mobile broadband with high-speed data - refers to UMTS technology and, in the case of the US, the derivatives of existing 2G technologies deployed largely on the spectrum currently occupied by TV channels.

ABOUT 3G LAB
3G LAB was formed in March 2000 and aims to accelerate the emergence of open standard mobile Internet platforms. It is particularly active in promoting Open Source WAP and Third Generation wireless software solutions for business and even home use. 3G LAB supports its software distribution with extensive support packages, offering long-term assistance in implementing and optimizing wireless information projects. Visit www.3GLAB.com for further information.

ABOUT ANALYSYS
Analysys, the global advisors in telecoms, IT and new media, work at the forefront of the communications revolution, delivering advice and insight to established and new entrant players. From offices in Cambridge, London, Glasgow, Madrid, Milan, Munich, Paris, Kuala Lumpur, San Francisco and Washington DC, over 200 Analysys staff provide strategy and systems consultancy, information services and start-up support to the companies which are creating the networked economy.

Wireless Slow To Catch On
Wireless technology promises anywhere, anytime Internet access. But wireless e- business won't move beyond niche applications anywhere or anytime soon if spotty security, immature standards, patchy service and other nagging shortcomings aren't addressed, managers say.

Some 76 percent of 101 IT and business managers surveyed by InternetWeek say their companies aren't using wireless Web technology. Half of those companies plan to do so but not for at
least a year.Why the inertia? The biggest concern is security, cited by 77 percent of the managers now using or planning to use wireless Web access technology. Other major concerns are the lack of reliable standards (69 percent), lack of Web or enterprise integration products (61percent), inadequate bandwidth (54 percent), high costs of technology (49 percent) and quality of technology (44 percent).

Nationwide Insurance Co. is exploring some wireless Web technologies,but the Columbus, Ohio, insurer is leery of security risks. "Anything can be picked up off a cell phone, and the same goes for laptops or PDAs," says Kevin Moore, an Internet security specialist at Nationwide. "Anybody can hack into anything."

Nationwide is working with wireless carriers to determine how to overcome those threats, Moore says, "but they don't know and we don't know how to resolve this." --Bob Violino and John Webster
Keep reading: http://www.internetweek.com/lead/lead121100.htm eLabs Report – Feb 2001Mobile-Application Development Is at a Crossroads - by Timothy Dyck

Trying to build wireless applications for mobile phones, PDAs, voice portals and so on is a dangerous proposition right now. There are so many competing standards, so many new initiatives and such a short shelf life for most new mobile approaches that any kind of platform decision seems doomed.
This is particularly true for those of us in North America because we are an island unto ourselves when it comes to mobile standards. Heck, 31 percent of U.S. cellular customers in the U.S. are using analog phones, according to 2001 statistics from International Data Corp.

If I were placing long-term bets, my money would be on cHTML and other HTML-based approaches to knock off WML.

Among digital phones in North America, CDMA (Code Division Multiple Access) remains the dominant standard, while TDMA (Time Division Multiple Access) is used pretty much everywhere else in the world. This year, 38 percent of the U.S. cell phone market is CDMA and 31 percent is TDMA, according to IDC. IDC predicts that 60 percent of U.S. cell phones will use CDMA by 2004 and 36 percent will use TDMA. TDMA is the leading standard most everywhere else, with market shares of 97 percent in Europe, 70 percent in Asia, 56 percent in Latin America and the Caribbean, and 94 percent in the Middle East and Africa.

The standards chaos extends to the protocols that the phones use. Whereas most PDAs (portable digital assistants), such as Palm OS- and Windows CE-based handheld systems or Research in Motion's BlackBerry wireless handheld computer, can view HTML-based applications, most phones cannot.

Most of the older digital phones in North America use Openwave Systems' (formerly Phone.com's) proprietary HDML (Handheld Device Markup Language), while newer phones use WML (Wireless Markup Language).

I have doubts about WML's longevity: WML isn't a subset of HTML, and asking developers to continue writing applications in HTML as well as HDML and WML is a big demand. In Japan, cHTML (Compact HTML) is the dominant markup language. Being similar to HTML, cHTML is less burdensome for developers who are familiar with HTML. If I were placing long-term bets, my money would be on cHTML and other HTML-based approaches to knock off WML.

Finally, there's no sign of any consensus about the critical features of cell phones. For example, compare the four-line display of a Nokia 7110 to the much-larger display on an Ericsson MC218. Differences like these indicate that developers will have no choice but to support a variety of form factors for some time to come.

The high costs of developing mobile applications will be a thorny issue over the next few years, given that standards and devices are moving targets that won't stand still anytime soon. Even with stationary targets, the job of building mobile applications—which are definitely not just republished versions of HTML applications—is huge.

Wireless LANs - Forecast by Cahners In-Stat - During early 200, Cahers In-Stat prected that by 2005, enterprise wireless LANs will reach $ 4.6 billion by 2005 - As quoted by Information Week magazine..

Size of the Telematics market - Go to Telematics section

Other Sources: Market Outlook section of our news section - every week, we publish news - there is a market outlook section. Go to news index and then search appropriate category. 

Keyword search of our site - There are thousands of custom-developed pages on this site and thousands of links to outside sites.  Do a keyword search at the top of the page to locate page of your interest.

Acknowledgement of Sources: We thank all the sources quoted on this page. We have taken the liberty of providing this information freely to the professional community. If any source objects to this, we shall gladly remove its content.